Category: gtcVertex Restricted

Despite efforts by Putin to attribute responsibility for the attack towards Ukraine, all significant evidence indicates that it was carried out by Tajik extremists inspired, aided and abetted by the Afghan-based group Islamic State Khorosan (ISIS-K).

Tajikistan, on the Russian border, is despotically-controlled country whose social and economic situations are amongst the worst in Central Asia, making large swathes of its population ideal fodder for radicalization.

Operating out of Taliban controlled Afghanistan, ISIS-K is now one of the more muscular regional terrorist groups which have been able to return to prominence since the return of the Taliban government in that country. In addition to its almost certain links to the Moscow attack, ISIS-K was also linked to bombings in Iran in January, killing more than 100 people. The group has also been linked to an attack on a church in Turkey and a foiled attack in Sweden.

The absence of a regional security consensus when the Americans left Afghanistan in 2021, has given rise to a fertile environment for regional jihadist groups to maneuver and grow.

U.S. military and intelligence commentators have estimated that the risks of further attacks emanating from Afghanistan are increasing.

Elsewhere in the region, violence in Pakistan by groups such as the Pakistani Taliban have been increasing and ISIS-K has begun operations in that country.

Most European countries have also assessed that the threat from ISIS-K is growing, with several operations in Germany and France having been foiled to date.

Beyond fertile national environments such as Afghanistan and Pakistan, the simple reality of regional wars in Ukraine and Gaza give rise to the kind of instability so helpful to radicalization and terrorist growth.

Once again, Canada will be susceptible to emerging threats of this kind, more than likely by radicalized lone actors using readily available weapons and tools.

META RISK: AI technology evolution will outstrip our common understanding of it and compromise national attempts to manage and regulate it. The major risk component in 2024 will be disinformation dissemination.

AI evolution continues at a pace that is far outstripping government’s capacity to either govern or regulate the technology.

Indeed, there is little consensus on either its benefits or the risks. Simply, technology companies (and probably governments, as well) who are in a race with their peers to capture advantage, will bridle at regulatory attempts to constraint their business models and will counter-lobby government, probably to good effect.

Oddly, an argument can easily be made that the significant AI risks are actually embedded in its advantages and incentives. Accurately calculate who will benefit and how and the attendant risks become almost axiomatic.

The largest near-term risk in the coming months will be the use of AI technology to generate disinformation during elections, particularly in the US. Well known and effective actors in this sphere, such as China, Russia and Iran will increasingly be joined by other state and non-state entities as the technology naturally proliferates.

Meta Risk: This issue began with an unforeseen event and may continue to be typified by this characteristic, making forecasting difficult. It is hard to see any resolution in 2024. Significant fractures are beginning to emerge as Netanyahu fights for his political life and seems willing to test support from the U.S.

“Events, dear boy, events”. The unstable quiet that had descended on theMiddle East is now smashed and any form of post-Gaza peace is long, long way off. As with Al Queda two decades ago, that was almost certainly the strategic intent of Hamas: to wreak havoc. In the near-term, it is clearly working.

A two-state solution seems most unlikely at the current time or any time in the foreseeable future, especially given recent pronouncements by Netanyahu. Indeed, Israel’s war policies are testing U.S.-Israeli relations.

Iran and its proxies are engaging in numerous and constant provocations on Israel’s northern border, in Syria, Iraq and in the Red Sea region. Furthermore, currently minor sideshows such as Iran-Pakistan seem manageable but add to the overall sense of tinder in a dry forest.

And yet, aside from a still-stinging Israel, few actors in the Gulf, including Iran, seem to have any true appetite for a broader regional war.

That is not to say that there are not multiple paths to escalation which could spiral, pushing Israel, the U.S. and Iran into full-scale kinetic action beyond Gaza.

This current and potentially escalating instability in the region is having deleterious effects on the petroleum/LNG markets and supply chains running through the Gulf, with many of the world’s larger shipping companies suspending transit through the Red Sea corridor in the wake of Yemeni Houthi attacks.

More broadly, anti-Israel and, more disturbingly, antisemitic attitudes and behaviours are growing not just in the middle east, but in most western democracies. The conflict is already stoking religious and political extremist views in the middle east and has likely already created a generation of rapidly calcified hatred amongst Palestinians. Moreover, anti-Israel sentiments and discontent, particularly among younger Americans (and elsewhere) and progressives will hurt Biden in 2024.

This blog is marked gtcVertex in the categories section.

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